Tørlast forventninger skrues markant ned

Morgan Stanley skærer nu markant i forventningerne til tørlastraterne næste år. Banken forventer nu, at Capesize bulkcarriers i 2013 må nøjes med en betaling på 11.500 dollar pr. dag, 52 procent mindre end den tidligere forventning om 24.000 dollar pr. dag.

For 2014 skæres den forventede indtægt ned fra 36.000 dollar pr. dag til 19.500 dollar pr. dag.

Supramax’er ventes nu at kunne tjene 8.800 dollar pr. dag i 2013 og 11.600 dollar pr. dag i 2014, et faæd på hhv. 39 og 41 procent.

Endelig reduceres forventningerne til Handysize med 30 procent i 2013 til 7.700 dollar pr. dag og med 38 procent i 2014 til 9.300 dollar pr.dag.

Bag de nedjusterede forventninger ligger, at Morgan Stanley nu forventer en vækst i efterspørgslen på 6 procent i 2013, mod tidligere 8 procent, og 7 procent i 2014, mod tidligere forventet 7,7 procent.

Samtidig ventes tilgangen af ny tonnage i 2013 dog kun at stige med lidt under 6 procent, mod tidligere forventet 8 procent. Til sammenligning ventes tilgangen af ny tørlast tonnage i år at ende på mere end 11 procent.

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